The Indian pharmaceutical market may soon undergo significant changes due to the expiration of the patent for semaglutide — the active ingredient behind the extremely popular diabetes and weight-loss drugs Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy and Ozempic. This paves the way for local pharmaceutical companies to launch much cheaper generic versions.
It is expected that this could trigger intense market competition and significantly reduce prices — in some cases by more than half — while sharply expanding access to treatment for millions of patients. Investment bank Jefferies has already described the situation as a potential “magic-pill moment” for India, predicting that the country’s semaglutide market could grow to around $1 billion, provided pricing is appropriate and demand remains high.
Analysts expect that within a few months, up to 50 generic versions of semaglutide could appear on the market. This is a typical scenario for India, which is known for its highly competitive pharmaceutical sector: after patent protection ends, dozens of copies of a drug often enter the market simultaneously. For comparison, when the patent for sitagliptin expired in 2022, dozens of brands quickly appeared, reaching nearly a hundred within a year.
Indian pharmaceutical companies are already actively preparing to launch their own versions of semaglutide, including Cipla, Sun Pharmaceutical, Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories, Biocon, Zydus Lifesciences, and Mankind Pharma.
Currently, treatment costs are high: Ozempic in India costs approximately ₹8,800–11,000 per month ($95–119), while Wegovy costs ₹10,000–16,000 ($108–173). Prices are expected to drop to ₹3,000–5,000 per month (around $36–54) once generics enter the market. This could radically change access to obesity and diabetes treatment, making injectable drugs widely available rather than a product only for affluent patients.
GLP-1 class drugs, which include semaglutide, were originally developed to treat diabetes but later became a breakthrough in weight management. They mimic a hormone that regulates appetite and blood sugar, helping patients feel full faster and maintain satiety longer.
India has more than 77 million people with type 2 diabetes and one of the world’s largest populations of overweight individuals. Urbanization, sedentary lifestyles, and high-carbohydrate diets only exacerbate the problem.
India is the world’s largest producer of generic drugs, supplying medicines to over 200 countries. It accounts for roughly 20% of the global generic market, including a significant share of exports to the U.S., the U.K., and Africa. Analysts believe the export potential for generic semaglutide could be enormous, with the U.S. obesity treatment market alone potentially reaching $10 billion in the coming years.
Founder of Research & Patent group Intectica, author of patent algorithms for solving problems in the pharmaceutical industry, patent attorney certified in all intellectual property objects (Patents, Design, TM), with education in chemistry and law, chief expert of the patent institution of Ukraine UKRPATENT (1997-2004). Member of international organizations, including ECTA, PTMG, UAM, lecturer and blogger.
